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January 16, 2011

Did you know that 19 of the last 28 Maiden Claiming races at Aqueduct paid under $8.

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 10:01 am
RowNum: PgmNum: WinAmt: PlaceAmt: ShowAmt: Distance: RaceCond: TrackCond: Fieldof: Date:
1 1 4.0 2.8 2.4 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 10 2010-12-29
2 1 7.9 4.7 3.5 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 11 2010-12-29
3 1 4.7 2.6 2.1 One Mile And Seventy Yards Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 6 2010-12-30
4 9 5.7 3.2 2.6 One Mile And Seventy Yards Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 8 2010-12-30
5 9 20.0 9.2 5.8 One Mile And Seventy Yards Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 9 2010-12-30
6 1 11.2 6.0 4.5 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 10 2010-12-30
7 6 12.4 5.1 2.6 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 7 2010-12-31
8 7 6.3 3.1 2.5 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 6 2010-12-31
9 4 19.8 6.2 4.4 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 9 2011-01-01
10 4 8.8 3.4 2.6 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 9 2011-01-01
11 1 5.5 4.1 3.2 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 10 2011-01-02
12 1A 2.8 2.5 2.1 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 8 2011-01-05
13 9 5.8 4.2 2.8 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 8 2011-01-05
14 2 5.4 2.5 2.3 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 6 2011-01-06
15 6 3.5 2.3 2.1 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 9 2011-01-06
16 6 5.6 3.3 3.0 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 8 2011-01-06
17 2 3.1 2.6 2.2 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 7 2011-01-07
18 7 19.2 6.5 4.7 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 8 2011-01-07
19 9 4.8 2.8 2.4 One Mile And Seventy Yards Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 10 2011-01-08
20 3 6.5 3.0 2.3 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 6 2011-01-09
21 2 13.6 4.9 3.5 One Mile And Seventy Yards Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 9 2011-01-09
22 6 14.0 8.0 3.9 One Mile Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 8 2011-01-13
23 8 8.6 4.7 2.8 One Mile And Seventy Yards Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 9 2011-01-13
24 3 7.6 3.8 2.6 One Mile And Seventy Yards Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 7 2011-01-14
25 4 3.1 2.2 2.1 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 8 2011-01-14
26 4 6.2 4.1 2.2 One Mile And Seventy Yards Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 7 2011-01-14
27 1 7.5 4.0 2.4 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 10 2011-01-15
28 4 6.4 3.1 2.7 Six Furlongs Maiden Claiming Dirt Fast 12 2011-01-15
19 Prices under $8 67.8% Avg WinAmt $8.2
Pgm # Win/Att Pct Win Amt Cost Profit / Loss Pct Return per $1
1 7/24 29.1% 43.6 48 -4.4 -10%
2 3/25 12% 22.1 50 -27.9 -56%
3 2/22 9% 14.1 44 -29.9 -68%
4 5/28 17.8% 44.3 56 -11.7 -21%
5 0/23 0% 0 46 -46 -100%
6 4/26 15.3% 35.5 52 -16.5 -32%
7 2/21 9.5% 25.5 42 -16.5 -40%
8 1/20 5% 8.6 40 -31.4 -79%
9 4/19 21% 36.3 38 -1.7 -5%
10 0/15 0% 0 30 -30 -100%
11 0/6 0% 0 12 -12 -100%
12 0/2 0% 0 4 -4 -100%
13 0/1 0% 0 2 -2 -100%
14 0/0 0% 0 0 0 0%
15 0/0 0% 0 0 0 0%
1 |*******
2 |***
3 |**
4 |*****
5 |
6 |****
7 |**
8 |*
9 |****
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |

3 Comments »

  1. We missed the 1 and the 4 on 01-15 no excuses was not disciplined fell for traps in other races and got burned. Also, the 1 has 7 wins in these races and 6 of the 7 wins paid under $8. Although morning line for the 1 was 5-1 or $12 the late money came in and dropped it to 5-2 or $7 which coincides with the win prices for the 1 in these situations.

    Comment by admin — January 16, 2011 @ 10:15 am

  2. Had nothing left to capitalize on the 4 in the last race at $6.40. Need to stay disciplined and take advantage of the trends as they happen. Can’t use other races to setup how I want to play. If the trend is there take it if it’s not walk away.

    Comment by admin — January 16, 2011 @ 10:27 am

  3. From Jan 1st through Jan 15th out of 20 Maiden Claiming races there were 14 races with win prices paying less than $8. Therefore, at that time, win prices paying less than $8 was happening at a rate of 70%.

    Fast forward since then from Jan 16th through Jan 20th out of 7 Maiden Claiming races there were 3 races with win prices paying less than $8 which is a rate of 42.8% a 28% drop. What was so special about these days? Why the drop off? Needless to say I got my butt handed to me on these days.

    Interestingly enough though, the 1 and the 2 have won 5 of the last 7 Maiden Claiming races during that stretch a $24 investment would have yielded a return of $40.5 giving a profit of $16 which is a 68% return on investment. The 1 and the 2 might be worth a look today since prices paying less than $8 have dropped off in this situation lately.

    Comment by comment — January 22, 2011 @ 9:59 am

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